AFG provides it's clients access to various equity valuation tools for in-depth analysis  . Given our proprietary methodology in calculating intrinsic values and solving for market expectations embedded in stock prices two of our most widely used stock modeling applications are Value Expectations and AFG’s Proforma Bulder.

Sample 1

Value Expectations - lets our clients harness the Economic Margin Framework, and solve for the performance a company must deliver to justify its current price. For example, Value Expectations for Cisco in 1995 revealed that Cisco was really more of a value stock, in spite of a P/E greater than 50. At that time, the expectations priced into Cisco’s stock were very modest. The table below shows Cisco actual value driver performance prior to 1995, the expectations priced into Cisco’s stock at the start of 1995, and what Cisco subsequently delivered.
 

Value Expectations indicated that despite a 50+ P/E Cisco was relatively cheap. Huge potential rewards were available to those that took the time to think through the analysis.

By significantly exceeding the expectations priced into its stock, Cisco delivered extraordinary returns to its owners (68% annualized total shareholder return in excess of the S&P 500 from 95-99).
 

By July 2000, Cisco was priced to deliver extraordinary future levels of growth and profitability. Over the subsequent year, it failed to achieve those expectations.

By significantly falling short of these market expectations, Cisco has returned an annualized return 62% lower than the S&P 500 since July of 2000. 
 

Sample 2

AFG’s Proforma Bulder

AFG Proforma Builder allows clients to make line item changes and detailed modeling.

AFG's Proforma Builder helps analysts pay close attention to working capital, expectations, capital structure and free cash flows.

The Proforma Builder's matrix allows you to see how changes in your forecast will impact the intrinsic value.

Free Cash Allocation and Financing Audit

Know if the Value of the firm is based on Future Investments or Existing Assets

This is a minute sample of the modeling abilities we provide our clients. If you are a portfolio manager/analyst and would like to learn more or receive a free trial, click here.